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Black and White Swans, Black and White Stones: can scenario planning take account of an unpredictable, tumultuous future?

Extract: Published in Management Today, selected by Knowledge Resources for their book "People Management Strategy in Organisations', and appearing on, an article that poses and then begins to answer the question: “Can traditional scenario planning take account of unexpected, catastrophic events?”
After considering the role and usefulness of scenario planning in business, the article looks at the recent entry of ‘black swan’ events and how we can mature the scenario process in order to formulate more nimble, robust strategies in an increasingly uncertain and tumultuous world – without becoming bogged down in overly-intellectual systems-thinking (whether ordered, chaotic, constrained, complex).

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